Relations with Israel, who after Bahrain? Target Iran or someone else?

Summary

After the UAE, Bahrain has also announced its recognition of Israel and the three countries are signing agreements to normalize relations on September 15 at the White House hosted by President Trump. These agreements are being called peace agreements, while […]

Relations with Israel, who after Bahrain Target Iran or someone else
Relations with Israel, who after Bahrain Target Iran or someone else

After the UAE, Bahrain has also announced its recognition of Israel and the three countries are signing agreements to normalize relations on September 15 at the White House hosted by President Trump. These agreements are being called peace agreements, while the Israeli Prime Minister and President Trump also call these agreements the Ibrahim Agreement.

Recognition of Israel by another Gulf state within a month is a major diplomatic achievement for the US administration, which President Trump is making full use of in his election campaign.

Meanwhile, another Muslim-majority country also announced its recognition of Israel in the White House, but it did not find a prominent place in our national media. We are referring to the Muslim-majority country of Kosovo.

The leaders of Serbia and Kosovo met under the auspices of President Trump and recognized Israel instead of resolving their differences . During a meeting with the Prime Minister of Kosovo, President Trump called the Israeli Prime Minister and congratulated him on the opening of an embassy in occupied Muslim-majority Jerusalem.

On the occasion, President Trump said that the scope for peace and recognition of Israel is expanding and more countries are expected to join. President Trump is incorporating this feat into his foreign policy, with Serbian President Alexander signaling that Belgrade will not move its embassy to occupied Jerusalem if Israel recognizes Kosovo.

A day before Bahrain’s announcement of Israel’s recognition, President Trump announced at the White House on September 15 that a third country would join the UAE-Israel peace agreement. President Trump has claimed that the Gulf states are queuing up for relations with Israel. Remember that the claim of many countries standing in line is very big. After Trump’s statement, guesses began to be made as to who was standing in this line.

The US president’s claim is as true as Bahrain’s, as it now appears that President Trump announced on August 13 that relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel would return to normal, just hours after top Bahraini officials Called White House adviser Jared Kishner and White House special envoy for the Middle East Evie Berkowitz, saying the next step in recognizing Israel should be their country.

Bahrain and Israel already have undeclared relations and secret contacts have been going on for decades despite the absence of diplomatic missions, so it took only 29 days for Bahrain to open up after the UAE’s announcement. Jared Kishner and his delegation stopped in Bahrain on their return from a visit to the United Arab Emirates with the Israeli delegation. All matters were settled on the same day but no announcement was made as both the White House and Bahrain were waiting for the Saudi green signal.

Following the announcement of Bahrain, it is now being speculated once again which country will be the next. And when will Saudi Arabia finally become a part of it?

But more importantly, who is the real target of this new diplomatic campaign? After all, what is the threat that is forcing Arab countries to move closer to Israel or to abandon their decades-old position and recognize Israel? If someone says that the Iranian threat, then it does not make sense, because this threat has existed for decades, what happened suddenly and the White House had to work day and night on this diplomatic campaign?

As far as the question of which country will be next is concerned, the simple answer is to look at the list of countries that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has visited during this one month, including Saudi Arabia. But he is still the silent and behind-the-scenes character of this diplomatic campaign and will not come out openly. My guess is that Saudi Arabia will wait for the results of the US presidential election because these agreements are being made at a time when Donald Trump is behind his rival Joe Biden in all polls for a second term.

Foreign policy issues have not gained much traction in the election campaign, with President Trump struggling to present himself as a peacemaker, but the focus of US voters is still on the Corona epidemic, the economy and racial discrimination. ۔

Speaking of Saudi Arabia, it has certainly tried to appease the Trump administration by giving the green signal to Bahrain, but as the custodian of the Holy Shrines, it is not in a position to act hastily. Under these circumstances, no major announcement about Israel should be expected from Saudi Arabia until the start of the new term, January 20.

Sudan is the second most important country on Mike Pompeo’s visit list. Mike Pompeo’s visit to Sudan was the first by a senior US official in 15 years. Surprisingly, sanctions on Sudan or the restoration of democracy in the country were not high on the agenda of Mike Pompeo’s visit, but his relations with Israel were at the center of Mike Pompeo’s talks.

Mike Pompeo has called on Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdouk to call on the Israeli prime minister to lift sanctions on Sudan and remove it from the list of countries considered a terrorist hotspot. Talk. Mike Pompeo said that after this move, he could satisfy the Congress regarding Sudan and the process of lifting sanctions could begin.

Hearing Mike Pompeo’s demand, the face of every official in the Sudanese delegation hung. Prime Minister Hamdouk, who heads the interim government, made it clear that he did not have that authority and refused to comply with Pompeo’s demands . Mike Pompeo then spoke to the Sudanese military leadership, who also refused.

Another country is Oman, which is said to be the next country to recognize Israel, but Muscat is still reluctant, with all countries openly contacting Israel to maintain its importance in the US camp. Not ready to come forward, in fact they all want to see what happens to the UAE.

The United Arab Emirates has said it recognizes Israel on the condition that it no longer occupy the Palestinian territories, while the Israeli prime minister has repeatedly said that more Palestinians Area integration program postponed, not canceled.

The US to recognize Israel was lured to the UAE’s F-35 aircraft, but after that the Israeli authorities will not do anything to endanger his military superiority in the region saying that time and He will oppose the transfer of advanced technology to the UAE, including the F-35. Therefore, in these circumstances, it is a difficult task to immediately involve more Arab or African countries in this diplomatic campaign. Forcing Arab and Muslim-majority countries to engage in relations with Israel may also be aimed at changing the position of European countries, which are unwilling to move their embassies to Jerusalem despite US pressure.

The most important question is what compulsion do the Arab countries have to recognize Israel? The answer to this is the statement of the Foreign Minister of the United Arab Emirates Anwar Qarqash in the Foreign Ministers of the Arab League. This is the same meeting in which the Arab League presented a resolution condemning the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and it was not accepted.

Anwar Qarqash said that Turkey’s interference in the internal affairs of the Arab world is an example of negative interference in the region. Turkey’s intervention is a source of instability in the Arab world and a threat to security. In addition to intervening directly in Arab countries, Turkey is also intervening through militias and proxies. Anwar Qarqash also mentioned Turkish activities in the Mediterranean and said that Turkey poses a threat to maritime traffic in the Mediterranean and is violating international law.

The statement of the Foreign Minister of the United Arab Emirates clearly shows the compulsion of the Arab countries. Relations between Turkey and the UAE are strained on a number of regional issues, including Syria, Yemen and Libya . In Libya, Turkey is backing Fayez al-Siraj’s government, and the UAE is supporting his rival, Khalifa Haftar. Arab countries see Turkey’s growing regional influence as a revival of the Ottoman Caliphate, which is unacceptable to them and a threat to their kingdoms.

The UAE Foreign Minister also mentioned the Mediterranean. The discovery of oil and gas in the sea off the coasts of Egypt, Gaza, Syria, Lebanon and Cyprus has given a new dimension to old and unresolved issues. The control of the Aegean Sea between Greece and Turkey, the division of Cyprus, and the demarcation of the maritime boundaries between Lebanon and Israel are just a few examples.

All the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean claim their own special economic zones up to 200 km from their shores and accuse each other of interfering in their zones. Turkey and Russia have emerged as key players in the region. Russia has been playing its cards very well in Libya and Syria for a decade, and Russia’s interests must be taken into account in any resolution of the conflicts in those countries.

Turkey is also enthusiastically advancing its agenda in the region. Turkey has its own agenda in the Aegean Sea, Special Economic Zones, Cyprus, Syria and Libya. Turkey’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood is also provoking Egypt, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, some European countries are also afraid of Turkey’s intentions in the Mediterranean and the recent meeting of 7 countries led by France is proof of this. Is.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also become disillusioned with EU membership and his attitude and policies are a reflection of that, and he no longer cares about EU resentment. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is convinced that no matter how secular Turkey is, its constitution is devoid of religion, that Turkey cannot join the European Union and that the main reason is that Turkey is a Muslim-majority country.

In this world of despair, Turkey has strained relations with its neighbors Greece, Cyprus, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, France and the European Union, while relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are tense. Relations with the United States are not the same as before, there is a partnership with Russia and there is competition. Even so, owning one is still beyond the reach of the average person. Turkey’s strategic location in the south of NATO is of strategic importance, Turkey has a US military base, Turkey can push millions of immigrants from Syria and Arab countries to Europe whenever it wants and all these addresses are very cleverly played by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. have been.

Fearing Turkey’s intentions, European countries are now looking to the Arabs. UAE Foreign Minister Anwar al-Qarqash’s reference to the Mediterranean is not without purpose. The Arabs themselves see Turkey as a threat. Under these circumstances, establishing relations with Israel is not against Iran, but to compete with Turkey.

Israel and the Arabs are already aware of Turkey’s threat. In January 2019, officials from Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates held a secret meeting in which Israel was represented by the head of Mossad. In this meeting, the Mossad chief had assured the Arabs that Iran has become weak, the real threat is Turkey. The secret meeting agreed on four steps to deal with the Turkish threat.

Number one

The first consensus was to help President Trump withdraw from Afghanistan. A week after the secret meeting, US officials met with the Afghan Taliban in Abu Dhabi, which included officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates. As a result of this meeting, the US-Taliban agreement was made possible.

Number two

The second consensus in the Gulf-Israel secret meeting was to control the Sunni card in Iraq in order to break Turkish influence in Iraq.

Number three

The third consensus was to restore diplomatic relations between Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, and to recognize Bashar al-Assad’s government and bring him back to the Arab League in order to oust him from Iran and confront Turkey. The Arab countries knew that Bashar al-Assad could not be removed from Iran, but their message was that instead of being used by Iran, use him and treat Iran equally, like your father. As a result, officials from several Arab countries visited Damascus.

Number four

The fourth consensus in this secret meeting was the support of the Syrian Kurds against Turkey.

Despite all the opposition, Turkey is already strong. Turkey has focused on self-reliance, formulate policies in the national interest. Let’s talk Turkey’s economy is about the same size as Saudi Arabia’s. Then, when the United States and Israel refused to provide drones, Turkey built its own drones. At the same time, Turkish companies are able to develop a gas field after finding gas at sea and supply it to the domestic market.

Israel has added Turkey to its list of countries considered a threat to national integrity . The pro-Greek French president recently tried to threaten Turkey at a seven-nation summit, urging European countries to set red lines for Turkey and for Turkey to negotiate with Greece before the next EU summit. Otherwise a new list of sanctions will be prepared.

France sent naval warships and aircraft to the region last month, and France, Greece and Cyprus held joint military exercises. Cyprus is buying 8 Rafale aircraft, 4 multi-purpose naval warships, 4 Navy helicopters, new anti-tank weapons and Navy torpedoes, Air Force missiles from France. In addition, Cyprus is investing heavily in the country’s defense industry with the recruitment of 15,000 new troops.

The United States has also been active in the Cyprus conflict, lifting a 33-year arms embargo on Cyprus for a year, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Cyprus last weekend to meet with Cypriot President Mike Pompeo. Pompeo said Cyprus has a right to explore natural resources in its economic zone.

Efforts to normalize Arab-Israeli relations, in a broader context, are part of new alliances being formed around the world. The world is once again divided into 2 blocks. China’s influence has grown exponentially in the Middle East and Africa, and the United States is building many new alliances to break that influence.

Compared to China, India, South Korea, Japan and Australia are forming a four-nation alliance, which will include more countries. The four countries have recently signed strategic and logistical agreements. Troubled with China in Ladakh, India is working to formalize the four-nation alliance. The patron of this four-nation alliance is the United States, which is trying to keep future wars away from its borders.

The new chief of the US Air Force himself has expressed fears that future wars could reach US borders . The United States is on the brink of an economic crisis and is concerned with reducing rather than increasing the military budget. New US Air Chief Charles Brown Jr. said budget pressures would require tough decisions in the future. Future wars will be different from the wars of the last 20 years, with possible wars with China and Russia near the US coast.

In changing circumstances, Pakistan will also have to reconsider its allies. If the US withdrawal from Afghanistan is the result of Israeli-Arab covert efforts, it will have repercussions in the future and not only will Afghan policy need to be reconsidered, but the US will push Afghanistan back into civil war. There are fears of leaving the region.

The United States is trying to keep India in its camp and prevent it from turning to Russia. India’s alliance with China is not possible, India’s influence in the Middle East is also increasing after becoming an American ally, India is attractive to Arab countries because of its large economy. India is also an ally of Israel and there are defense cooperation agreements between the two countries. India and Israel are facing the same problems because of Kashmir and Palestine. India is moving towards Israel, abandoning its decades-old policy on Palestine.

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