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Is there a risk of a new war in the region after the establishment of UAE-Israel relations?

Summary

When the UAE announced its recognition of Israel last week , there was a mixed reaction in the Muslim world. Some called it a betrayal of the Palestinians, while others called it a historic agreement, and informed circles saw the […]

Is there a risk of a new war in the region after the establishment of UAE-Israel relations
Is there a risk of a new war in the region after the establishment of UAE-Israel relations

When the UAE announced its recognition of Israel last week , there was a mixed reaction in the Muslim world. Some called it a betrayal of the Palestinians, while others called it a historic agreement, and informed circles saw the “normalization” of relations between the two states as “formalization.”

Israel and the UAE’s formal diplomatic relations agreement is not a simple matter. On the contrary, the agreement has sparked another war in the region, as well as fears of a military coup by Arab supremacists in several Muslim states.

Israel’s relations and secret alliance with the Arab world are a thing of the past , but now these relations are being formalized and announced, and of course there are many factors involved.

The first is the fear of the Arab kingdoms that arose during the Arab Spring. During the Arab Spring, the monarchies realized that political Islam was a major threat to them, and that any popular movement against oppression and corruption could be a threat to their monarchies. Even a world power like the United States could not help its staunch ally Hosni Mubarak in such a movement and the popular movement of the Muslim Brotherhood overthrew it. During this time many examples emerged, including Tunisia and Sudan.

After the Arab Spring, the security situation in the region began to change. Despite efforts, the United States has failed to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Even after the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities, the United States did not take any military action to help Saudi Arabia . The Arab monarchies, which for decades have relied on the United States and their European allies for survival, realized that these allies might no longer be of any use to them.

Iran has intensified proxy warfare in the region, extending it from Lebanon, Syria and Iraq to Yemen, raising concerns among Arab kingdoms. Under former US President Barack Obama, a deal on Iran’s nuclear program had created fear among Arab states, who felt that Washington had now backtracked on its commitment to destroying Iran’s nuclear program and that Iran was only under the burden of sanctions. Wants to hold down

Israel’s opposition to Iran has not diminished in comparison to the United States. Israel has been assuring all Arab states that have had secret relations with it since the 1960s that it is ready to help them against Iran.

The Arab states, ostensibly anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian, continued to co-operate with Israel on security issues in secret contacts, and as a result, Israel continued to bomb Iranian interests in Lebanon and Syria, as well as Iran’s nuclear facilities. Be under Israeli attack.

Israeli-Arab relations have been secret for some time, but after returning to power in 2009, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pursued a policy of exposing secret relations. After that, small diplomatic steps of cooperation continued, and then Israel took a big step when it provided diplomatic assistance in establishing the headquarters of the International Renewable Energy Agency in the UAE, but in return it made it a condition that its diplomats Will have to be recognized at their headquarters.

In 2015, Israel opened a diplomatic mission at the agency’s headquarters, making it Israel’s first diplomatic office in the United Arab Emirates . Taking one step at a time like this, the whole trap has now become. This is the Obama era, when the US military presence in the Gulf began to wane, as did Trump, and Israel became a natural ally of the Arab states that existed in the region and could not leave.

The Arab states continued to cooperate with Israel against Iran, but also maintained their position on the Palestinian issue. Israel did not change at all and continued to work to improve relations with the Arabs.

An example of this is a ceremony in Washington, where the Saudi ambassador asked his Israeli counterpart to resolve the Palestinian issue so that Israel could advance Arab-regional cooperation. There was no doubt on the forehead of the Israeli diplomat and he replied that why do you hand over the key of change in the region to the Palestinians?

For years, Israel tried to hide its cooperation with the Arab states so that the people in the cooperating states would not rise up against the rulers, but Netanyahu changed his policy. As soon as Trump became president in the United States, the situation changed and Trump handed over the responsibility of resolving the Palestinian issue to his son-in-law Jared Kishner. Jared Kishner established personal relations with Arab princes, a deal called the Deal of the Century was drawn up , President Trump stood with the Israeli Prime Minister and announced the plan, while representatives from the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain also visited the White House East Room. I was present. Trump’s plan was not well received by the Arab people, but there was no protest in the presence of Arab representatives, which encouraged the Arab rulers.

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Apparently, the UAE’s announcement to recognize Israel came as a surprise, but work on it had been going on for a year and a half and the agreement had been reached two months ago, which was reserved for President Trump’s second term in office. The UAE made the announcement 82 days before the US presidential election, giving Trump a gift on the foreign policy front. The Israeli prime minister also retaliated by announcing a deal of the century during the election.

The proof of the agreement or deal two months ago is that the Israeli Prime Minister had given the date of annexation of West Jordan to Israel on July 1, but July 1 came and went and the Israeli Prime Minister stopped the implementation of the plan and did not explain it. ۔

The Americans cleverly played the role of annexing West Jordan to Israel and negotiated a deal with the UAE to end the occupation of West Jordan. Yousef Al-Atiba, the UAE’s ambassador to Washington, and his Jewish friends played a key role in the deal. Yousef al-Atiba published a Hebrew-language column in an Israeli newspaper in June , which was influenced by influential American Jews.

The column called on Israel to choose between occupying West Jordan and its relations with the Arab world. The message was from American liberal Jews to extremist Jews in Israel. The message worked, and in late June, Yousef al-Atiba contacted Jared Kishner at the White House and Evie Berkowitz, the US special envoy for the Middle East, to suggest that if Israel halted its plan to annex West Jordan, the Arabs The UAE is ready to recognize Israel.

Jared Kishner liked the proposal and started working on it. To deter Netanyahu from the plan, the White House stipulated that if a large part of West Jordan was to be annexed, the transfer of 5 to 10 percent of it to Palestine would be done at the same time. The White House also realized that the Israeli government was divided over the annexation of West Jordan, so the target was right, and Netanyahu saw the dream of relations with the Arab world come true, and so the agreement was reached. ۔ Dozens of meetings and contacts in 7 days resulted in a draft agreement and it was hidden for the time being.

After the announcement of the UAE, there was a lot of celebration in the Israeli and American media and at the same time it was speculated who would show this courage after the UAE. Names of 5 countries including Saudi Arabia.

After the announcement of the UAE, a debate started on social media in Pakistan as well. Coincidentally, before the announcement, there was a sudden bitterness in Pak-Saudi relations , and attempts were made to link this bitterness with Israel, and it was claimed that Pakistan was also under pressure to recognize Israel. That was the reason for the breakdown of relations because Pakistan refused to come under pressure.

The comments of the revolutionaries on social media severely affected the public opinion and the differences between the rulers of the two brotherly countries were used to play with the public sentiments and the full effort of political scoring is still going on.

A new wave of speculation erupted when the military leadership left for Riyadh to bridge the gap in Pak-Saudi relations . The fact is that Saudi Arabia has not yet agreed to recognize Israel. The friendship between Jared Kishner and Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman is in place, but the Saudi position is still the same as it was years ago.

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The Saudi silence for a week after the UAE’s announcement also sparked speculation, but at a press conference with his German counterpart in Berlin, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan made it clear that he did not recognize Israel until a Palestinian state was recognized. can .

The Israeli and American media are trying to give the impression that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is willing to recognize Israel, but those who report it have forgotten that the final decision rests with King Salman. King Salman is committed to the Palestinian cause and in January assured Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas that Saudi Arabia stands with Palestine and its people.

The position of the United Arab Emirates is different from that of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has a special place in the Muslim world because of the two holy shrines. Is. Therefore, any such decision would be very difficult for Saudi Arabia in these circumstances. But even if Saudi Arabia had to recognize Israel in the future, it would only be possible for the Palestinians to get concessions.

US officials are still unsure whether Saudi Arabia will emulate its ally the United Arab Emirates, so Jared Kishner had to say that if Saudi Arabia imitates the UAE, it will have economic and defense benefits. ۔

As far as Bahrain is concerned, Bahrain relies on the financial support of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which is why it will have difficulty in making a decision. Bahrain will decide only after examining the regional response.

Another name is Oman, but Oman may not want to provoke Iran. Kuwait has openly stated that it will be the last country to recognize Israel. A spokesman for Sudan’s foreign ministry signaled recognition of Israel, but the next day the foreign minister not only denied the allegations but also fired the spokesman . Despite Sudan’s denials and this action, it is not possible to form a final opinion on it.

If at some point the issue of recognizing Israel gains momentum, the Arab states will make a joint decision but will try to force other Muslim countries as well, in which case there are fears of a military coup in many countries. Examples include the treatment of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has been heavily funded by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia for some time to stay out of Iran’s influence, and the Sudanese president has succeeded in doing so, but then came a time when he was a brother in the country. The two countries cut off financial support to the Sudanese army stationed with the Saudi coalition in the Yemen war, and the army revolted against Omar al-Bashir and paid him millions of dollars from Saudi Arabia. Arrested and convicted of embezzlement . Then, as soon as military rule was established, the two countries resumed economic aid.

When the Brotherhood government was formed in Egypt, the UAE organized a revolt against it and provided financial support, on the basis of which the army arrested President Morsi and seized power.

In Qatar, too, there was an attempt to revolt against the government only because Qatar is harboring Brotherhood leaders. At the request of the UAE, the Saudi leadership boycotted Qatar in the Arab League. The Arab Spring overthrew governments in a few countries, but the campaign launched by the United Arab Emirates against this Arab Spring is still going on.

The UAE sees itself as an emerging power in the Middle East and militarily superior and stronger than Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The UAE is preparing for the role of a new police chief in the Middle East. Proof of this is the role of the UAE in Libya, where it stands against Turkey in support of Khalifa Haftar.

If we talk about Israel and the UAE, they have some common enemies, such as political Islam, Iran and Turkey, and both are cooperating against these enemies.

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Allegations and reports of UAE financing the 2016 uprising in Turkey have surfaced. When Turkish air defense batteries were attacked at Libya’s Al-Watia airbase, Abdul Khaliq Abdullah, an adviser to the UAE’s royal court , tweeted that the UAE had taught Turkey a lesson on behalf of all Arabs , and later deleted the tweet. Kardi

The UAE’s broad ambitions could at any time lead to differences with Saudi Arabia and Egypt. In Yemen, the UAE has already begun to act against Saudi interests.

One of the possible consequences of the UAE’s recognition of Israel is the outbreak of a new war in the region. “More GCC countries want a breakthrough with Israel,” Kishner said of the decision. The closer the countries get, like the UAE and Israel, the more difficult it will be for Iran to divide and conquer. The biggest opponent of Saudi-Israeli relations is Iran, which proves that recognizing Israel is the right decision.

Jared Kishner’s statement clarifies who is the real target of the peace agreement between the UAE and Israel. Recent US actions have made it clear what the Trump administration’s policy on Iran is. The United States has tabled a resolution in the Security Council calling for a new arms embargo on Iran, but its European allies Britain, France and Germany have refused to vote in favor of the resolution. The rejection of the resolution shows that the United States is left alone on the issue of Iran, but the Trump administration is not ready to back down from its intentions.

The United States is to propose sanctions to the Security Council under a clause in the nuclear deal with Iran, the same nuclear deal from which the United States unilaterally withdrew but now wants to use it for sanctions. Oil shipped to Venezuela was also seized. These US efforts are aimed at provoking Iran. Earlier, the death of General Qasim Soleimani in a drone strike was also an attempt to provoke Iran.

In 2018, President Trump also allowed the CIA to conduct covert operations to change the government in Iran. The recent bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities was also an attempt to provoke Iran into an aggressive move, with Israel participating. At any point, if Iran takes any provocative action, the United States will not hesitate to start a war, and if Iran becomes a battlefield, other players will jump in and the region will become the victim of another permanent war.

If Trump wants a peaceful solution to Iran’s nuclear program, a global deal would be the best solution, but Trump himself announced his unilateral withdrawal.

The lesson of history is that those who sided with and recognized Israel later regretted it. Today, it is said that recognizing Israel will bring prosperity to the region and Israel’s friendly countries will be economically and defensively strong, but Jordan and Egypt are the first to recognize Israel. ۔

Both countries are weaker and more divided today than ever before. Both countries once called themselves the founders of peace in the region but today they regret what they got in the name of peace. To date, the economic promises made to these two countries have not been fulfilled. The issue of Palestine is still unresolved and the land of Palestine has shrunk further. Al-Fatah, a Palestinian organization that recognizes Israel, is also forced to ask itself today what it gained from the Oslo Accords. This question is forcing Fatah to move closer to its rival Hamas.

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